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About Market Prediction
Article  |  Fri - April 8, 2016 4:40 pm  |  Article Hits:1077  |  A+ | a-

About Market Prediction


If you do believe that market prediction methods triumphed only in 19-21 centuries, than you would probably accept the statements that Columbus was the first explorer who discovered America or water on Mars is much sweeter than spring water on the Earth. For instance, the ancient Chinese already had and used their own prediction system THOUSANDS years ago. It used the stars, numerology and geomancy. They called it Yi Jing (易經) or later known as Zhou Yi (周易). This was the foundation of widely known Feng Shui (風水) and other sophisticated systems like奇門遁甲, again originated from Yi Jing and widely used to predict weather, crops, personal affairs, winners and battle tactics, personal luck, health and longevity and now used to forecast stock markets and even your very trade outcome.  Try not to to call it scientific. Basically, these methods are more scientific and accurate than popularized stock charting or time series analysis, because it is based on nature and cosmic laws and mathematics. Thousands of books have been written on the subject.  

Probably there is only a bunch of people who can really use Yi Jing to predict stock market prices. This field is very difficult to learn and master. Recall Gann’s methods. They are cool too if you not only know it, but know how to use it, like Gann did. Common drawback is that all these methods are generally slow and require much time to produce satisfactory results for traders. And traders tend to think and act swiftly without long waiting.

Well, luckily, there are other methods you can use to achieve desired results. Many people now are engaged in stock market forecasting starting from crystal ball owners to biologists and rocket scientists. Many systems are really good, but not all the time you can rely on them. This is because trading is not that simple and involves many factors we don’t even think it may have had influence on trading. This is not only insider’s manipulations, acts of God or bad company or market news crashing you fine and delicate trading strategy. Lack of luck in trading is one and most neglected factor in the West. This means you better stay off trading and risky investing, including day trading, try something else in your life to make money. Odds are you will lose even in good situation for sure. Proper Feng Shui is very important in winning in the stock market.

Therefore, to be on the safe side I prefer to follow some rules.

  1. We can’t know all about anything. No regret for that.
  2. We don’t need to trade all around the clock to prosper.
  3. We can’t make all money in the market even if we strive to do so, and eventually
  4. Our personal luck or fortune in trading, as well as available financial resources are limited and that’s why we need to be careful with what and when to trade.

Perhaps one of the most important concepts that bothers us all is that winning stocks are not all in the chosen day and we need to put a lot of efforts to try to identify performing stocks or other tradable instruments in advance to put them in the portfolio in order to utilize probable good trading opportunity.

Methods to do so are limitless, but I prefer to use time, price, volume and common sense. These things are widely accepted, easy to comprehend and very quick to calculate. Time gives future prices, and volume gives trend. Time can be days, hours or even weeks. All together it produces future price curve for a stock, ETF, commodity or a currency pair. Due to limitations the results can deviate or even have critical errors, and at this point trading patterns are of most importance and can provide support for or question a trading decision or idea. Sometimes, to understand more we need to wait for the right news to make the right choice if we are in doubt about what is best now to buy or sell. Comparing available predictions with current price charts at vital points of support and resistance, we can judge accuracy of prediction and assess future possibility of the market to go up or down as projected by the forecast.

To be continued 
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